Global Fishmeal Crisis Deepens as El Niño Pressures India’s Shrimp Feed Market

By Dr. Wiphada Mitbumrung, Ph.D. Applied Marine Biosciences — Wed Sep 02 2026

Feed is consistently the largest single line item in production cost, typically 55–65% of total farming expenditure. So when a major feed manufacturer raises prices, the ripple effect through the state's shrimp economy is immediate and significant.

The clearest sign that this is an industry-wide cost problem, not a single company's pricing decision, is that major feed manufacturers have announced increases within days of each other, all effective 1 September 2026.

ABIS Foods and Proteins Pvt. Ltd. raised invoice prices for its shrimp feed:

ABIS cited "prevailing market conditions and the increase in raw material costs" as the reason.

Growel Feeds Private Limited raised dealer prices across its full shrimp feed product line:

Growel's notice points to the same driver "continuous rise in the cost of key raw materials" impacting production expenses and frames the hike as necessary "to maintain product quality and sustainability."

This pattern is a strong indicator of genuine feed-industry cost inflation (fishmeal, soy, energy, currency) rather than opportunistic pricing by any single player. Farmers should expect other manufacturers serving Andhra Pradesh and the broader Indian shrimp belt to follow with comparable revisions in the coming weeks if they haven't already.

Why Feed Costs Keep Climbing

1. Raw material dependency on global commodities: Shrimp feed formulations rely heavily on fishmeal, fish oil, soybean meal, wheat flour, and increasingly on alternative proteins (poultry by-product meal, insect meal, single-cell protein). Vannamei feeds generally run 32–38% crude protein, while Black Tiger feeds, often formulated for larger, later-stage animals, trend higher, near 38–42% crude protein. That higher protein specification means Black Tiger feed absorbs raw-material inflation more heavily per kilogram, which is consistent with the steeper ₹12/kg hike compared to ₹9/kg for Vannamei.

2. Fishmeal and fish oil price volatility: On 20 August 2026, IFFO reported that Coastal El Niño was significantly affecting global fishmeal and fish oil production, particularly in Peru and Chile. Peru, which normally contributes around 20% of global fishmeal production, was heavily affected. Its first 2026 North-Central anchovy season had a quota of around 1.91 million tonnes, but fishing was repeatedly interrupted and eventually suspended on 10 June 2026, with only about 25% of the quota caught. This sharply reduced fishmeal production and tightened global supply. The same pressure was already being felt in India. On 1 August 2026, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu cited industry data showing that fishmeal prices had increased from approximately ₹155,000 per tonne to ₹240,000 per tonne. Together with higher prices for fish oil and soy lecithin, this was estimated to add around ₹25,000 to the manufacturing cost of one tonne of shrimp feed. The situation was further confirmed by Avanti Feeds during its August 2026 earnings discussion, where management stated that its current fishmeal purchase price was around ₹225/kg and identified rising fishmeal, fish oil, soybean meal and other raw-material costs as major pressures on shrimp-feed production. Earlier company commentary indicated an even sharper movement, with fishmeal reportedly rising from around ₹100/kg to as high as ₹240/kg within about two months, with part of the disruption linked to severe El Niño conditions. By 31 August 2026, the impact was becoming more visible in the international market, with fishmeal spot prices reported at around USD 2,500 per tonne. The reduced availability of fishmeal and fish oil was increasing raw-material costs for aquafeed manufacturers globally, including producers of shrimp feed.

3. Currency and import costs: India imports a significant share of fishmeal, fish oil, and certain feed additives (vitamins, amino acids like lysine and methionine, enzymes). A weaker rupee against the US dollar directly raises landed cost, independent of any change in global commodity prices.

4. Freight and energy costs: Extrusion, drying, and pelleting are energy-intensive. Diesel and electricity cost increases, along with inland and coastal freight, add to the delivered price at the farm gate.

Impact on Farm Economics

For a typical semi-intensive Vannamei pond running a Feed Conversion Ratio (FCR) of 1.4–1.6, a ₹9/kg increase translates to roughly ₹13–14 in added feed cost per kilogram of shrimp produced. Across a full cycle stocking a 1-hectare pond and producing 8–10 tons, that's an additional ₹1.0–1.4 lakh in feed spend for the cycle alone, a material hit when farm-gate shrimp prices are simultaneously under pressure from export demand and global supply from Ecuador and India's own high production volumes. For Black Tiger operations, the ₹12/kg increase is proportionally sharper, since Black Tiger culture already carries higher feed cost per kg of output due to longer culture periods and lower stocking densities.

How Farmers Are Adapting

With feed now a bigger share of cost, the highest-leverage response isn't cutting corners on feed quality, it's using less feed to produce the same shrimp. Two practices matter most: reading the feeding tray correctly, and building a pond ecosystem that feeds the shrimp for you.

1. Feed management through proper feeding-tray checks

The feeding tray is the single most reliable low-cost tool a farmer has to avoid both over-feeding and under-feeding. A small, known amount of feed is placed on the tray each feeding, and the tray is checked before the next feeding to decide how much to adjust:

The logic: an empty tray with active shrimp means demand is rising (often size/biomass growth), so feed goes up incrementally. Leftover feed is wasted feed, it doesn't just cost money, it also degrades the pond bottom as it decomposes, driving up ammonia, lowering dissolved oxygen, and creating exactly the kind of instability that then increases FCR further. A tray with heavy leftover feed is also an early warning sign, before shrimp show visible stress, appetite loss is often the first symptom of a water quality shift, low oxygen, or a developing health issue, which is why "check water, health, weather" is paired with the biggest feed cut.

Done consistently (multiple trays per pond, checked at every feeding), this alone typically holds FCR closer to target and prevents the silent feed waste that inflates cost without inflating growth.

2. Lowering FCR through natural pond food

Vannamei shrimp are opportunistic omnivores and excellent grazers, they spend much of their time picking at the pond floor and water column for natural food: benthic diatoms, biofilm, zooplankton, small crustaceans, and bacterial floc. This natural food is essentially "free" protein and energy the farmer doesn't have to buy, and shrimp typically convert it more efficiently than formulated feed.

The practical implication: a pond ecosystem that's rich in natural productivity reduces how much of the shrimp's daily nutrition needs to come from the feed bag, which directly lowers FCR. Farmers building this into their management are focusing on:

Balanced nitrogen:phosphorus management to sustain a healthy phytoplankton bloom, rather than relying solely on feed inputs to drive pond productivity.
Stable mineral and alkalinity levels, which support both plankton health and the microbial base that natural food depends on.
Healthy, oxygenated pond bottom (avoiding organic overload) so benthic natural food organisms can establish and shrimp can graze on the floor without it becoming a source of stress.

Conclusion

Feed price increases of this kind are unlikely to be one-off. As long as fishmeal supply remains volatile and the rupee stays under pressure, incremental hikes should be expected across cycles rather than treated as isolated events. The farms that protect margins best going forward will be the ones that treat feed cost not just as a price to absorb, but as an FCR and pond-management problem to actively solve.